How to check the reserve price of a property? ——The logic behind house prices from the perspective of hot spots across the Internet
Recently, the real estate market has once again become the focus of heated discussions across the Internet. Whether it is policy adjustments, regional housing price fluctuations, or changes in the psychological expectations of home buyers, it has triggered extensive discussions. This article will start from the hot topics in the past 10 days, combined with structured data, to analyze how to determine the reserve price of real estate.
1. Sorting out hot topics across the Internet (last 10 days)
| Ranking | hot topics | Discussion popularity | main focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Purchase restriction policies relaxed in many places | 950,000+ | The impact of policies on housing prices |
| 2 | Mortgage interest rates continue to fall | 780,000+ | Changes in home buying costs |
| 3 | Second-hand house listings surge | 650,000+ | market supply and demand |
| 4 | Real estate companies increase promotional efforts | 520,000+ | Developer pricing strategy |
| 5 | Property tax pilot extension | 480,000+ | long term holding costs |
2. Five core dimensions for determining the bottom price of real estate
1.Comparison of regional transaction data: By comparing the transaction prices and listing prices in the same area in the past three months, the true market acceptance can be found.
| city | Average listing price (yuan/㎡) | Average transaction price (yuan/㎡) | spread rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing | 68,500 | 62,300 | 9.0% |
| Shanghai | 72,800 | 67,900 | 6.7% |
| Guangzhou | 45,600 | 42,100 | 7.7% |
| Shenzhen | 75,200 | 69,800 | 7.2% |
2.cost method calculation: The developer’s cost price usually includes factors such as land, construction and installation, taxes and fees, and can be used as a bottom line for reference.
| Cost item | Proportion | Description |
|---|---|---|
| land cost | 40-60% | Bidding, auction and listing price + deed tax |
| Construction and installation costs | 25-35% | Including decoration standards |
| taxes | 10-15% | Value-added tax/land-increased tax, etc. |
| profit | 5-10% | Developer net profit |
3.Rental return rate backwards: Whether a property is overvalued can be judged by the rent-to-sale ratio. The international warning line is usually 1:300.
| city | Average house price (yuan/㎡) | Monthly rent (yuan/㎡) | rent-to-sale ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing | 62,300 | 85 | 1:733 |
| Shanghai | 67,900 | 92 | 1:738 |
| Guangzhou | 42,100 | 65 | 1:648 |
| Shenzhen | 69,800 | 88 | 1:793 |
4.policy impact assessment: Policies such as new housing provident fund policies and loosened purchase restrictions recently introduced in many places have directly affected the demand for home purchases and price support.
5.market sentiment indicator: According to public opinion monitoring across the entire network, the current wait-and-see sentiment among home buyers accounts for 63%, and developers’ promotional projects have increased by 42% month-on-month.
3. Practical suggestions: How to find the lowest price
1.Create a price coordinate system: Collect at least 10 comparable cases in the same sector and eliminate the highest/lowest 20% extreme values.
2.Watch for special deals: Foreclosures and urgent-sale properties often reflect the market’s bottom line. Recent foreclosure transaction prices are generally 15-25% lower than the market price.
3.Dynamic tracking strategy: It is recommended to use the following monitoring frequencies:
| Data dimensions | Recommended update frequency | key indicators |
|---|---|---|
| Listing price | daily | Proportion of houses with reduced prices |
| Transaction price | weekly | Bargaining space |
| policy | real time | Purchase restrictions/loan changes |
| land | monthly | Unsuccessful auction rate |
4. Prediction of future trends
Based on the current market performance, it is expected that the bottom of housing prices in core cities will be 8-12% above the existing prices, and the adjustment range in second- and third-tier cities may reach 15-20%. It is recommended that home buyers focus on the price window period before the traditional sales peak season in the fourth quarter.
Final reminder: The reserve price of real estate is a dynamic concept and needs to be comprehensively judged in conjunction with macro policies, local supply and demand, and personal financial conditions to avoid missing out on suitable housing by simply pursuing "absolutely low prices."
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